The forecast is in line with potential growth, the multilateral lender said in the Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday.
The figure is higher than that forecast for its South Asian neighbours save for India, which is expected to grow at 6.3 percent. The projection for South Asia, excluding India, is 5.1 percent and for developing countries 4.8 percent. “If you compare the global and regional economy, the growth forecast for Bangladesh is good,” said Zahid Hussain, lead economist of WB's Dhaka office.
The global economy is projected to expand by 2.8 percent this year, strengthening to 3.4 percent and 3.5 percent in 2015 and 2016. The Euro area is on target to grow by 1.1 percent this year, while the US economy is expected to grow by 2.1 percent.
China is expected to grow by 7.6 percent this year, but this will depend on the success of rebalancing efforts. If a hard landing occurs, the reverberations across Asia would be widely felt, the report said.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has estimated 6.1 percent growth for the current fiscal year.
GDP growth depends on a number of factors, he said. “How will the political environment be? Will the slow loan growth accelerate? Will the agricultural sector be hit by natural calamity?”
The CPD executive director, however, said the low commodity, fuel and cotton prices in the international market are all favourable for achieving a good GDP growth figure.
High-income countries would see stronger growth this year of 1.9 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous year, the World Bank said.
But developing countries can expect mixed challenges from the accelerating growth in the rich countries.
As high-income economies expand, their import demand should grow, boosting developing-country exports.
But developing countries will be hard-pressed to find the capacity to meet that demand, because most of them already are fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and growing close to potential, the Washington-based development lender said.
Developing countries were projected to grow 4.8 percent this year, substantially below the 5.3 percent estimate in January.
"The outlook for developing countries is for flat growth in 2014. This marks the third year in a row of sub-five percent growth and reflects a more challenging post-crisis global economic environment," it said.
The World Bank's latest outlook marked a deterioration from the January report, when it had raised its growth forecasts, saying both rich and developing countries appeared to be "finally turning the corner" after the global financial crisis.
Much of the slowdown this year reflected weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy.
First-quarter growth in Chinese gross domestic product was only a 5.8 percent annualized rate, with a sharp deceleration in industrial output and Beijing taking steps to tighten credit.
The Washington-based lender forecast growth of 7.6 percent this year, lower than China's 7.7-percent growth rate in 2013. Beijing's own target for this year is 7.5 percent.
GDP growth accelerated slightly in the first quarter in India, Mexico and the Philippines. But the pace of growth slowed in Indonesia, Mongolia, Malaysia and Brazil and turned negative in South Africa and Peru.
Sharp annualized contractions of between eight and 12 percent occurred in Ukraine, Thailand and Morocco.
The weakness in developing countries reflected a slew of factors, including knock-on effects from the severe winter in the US; political tensions in Thailand, Ukraine and Turkey; labor unrest in South Africa; and monetary policy tightening following financial market turmoil a year ago, the Bank said.
***********************************************
The Bangladesh Women Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BWCCI)yesterday launched a plan to create 5,000 women entrepreneurs by 2020 from the micro- and small- and medium-enterprise levels.
“These 5000 women entrepreneurs will grow their businesses and will be part of the mainstream private sector,” said Selima Ahmed, president of BWCCI.
The plan -- 2020: Empower 5,000 -- will generate employment for women, who will, in turn, support the country in its efforts to become a middle-income nation by 2021, she said during a keynote presentation at the launch ceremony of the plan.
She said proper utilisation of the Tk 100 crore allocated in the upcoming budget for women is a must to create new entrepreneurs.
